11 September 2001 was the day that changed the world. Today the world is not the same as it was prior to that fateful day. The world is dynamic in nature in which change is inevitable. It may be change for the better or change for the worst. After nine years of that event, we are standing at the cross road and thinking whether we have lost gained.
Decisions made by the powerful countries always create ever lasting impressions in the history. Same is the case with decision taken by George W Bush, the former president of the US to launch a global war against the terrorists. Notwithstanding the facts whether the suicidal attacks were genuinely planned and executed by Al Qaeda or were orchestrated by those who had their own plans to implement and interests to be accrued, my focus will be on the out come of the war and its future prospects.
During the days of bipolar world, although a large number of conflicts were going on in various parts of the world but the global peace was not being threatened in a manner as it is today. Although the hostile forces of NATO and the Warsaw Pact countries remained deployed in full preparation, we did not see a single bullet being fired from any side of the adversaries. Despite conflicting policies, a semblance of uncomfortable calm prevailed under the shadow of nuclear warheads.
When a super power makes a strategic decision, it has to take its full responsibility as well. During the cold war era both the super powers took many decisions but with responsibility, probably due to an expected backlash from the other side. However the decisions now being taken by the sole super power seem to be devoid of responsibility. Relying on the sheer use of brute force, with a total disregard to public opinion and with no regrets of the colossal damage caused to civil life and property, the outcome of that decision is as the following:
§ The number of casualties caused to American and allied forces have exceeded the casualties caused in the destruction of World Trade Center on 11 September 2001.
§ The economy of the US plunged to its lowest after the recession of 1902’s. The US government had to rely on the bailout package to stabilize the economy.
§ The unemployment graph in the US is at its all time high. The promises made by President Obama for jobs, health etc are still in doldrums.
§ As per the assessment of the US generals, politicians and think tank, their country is still unsafe. Reportedly Al Qaeda is intact and is planning to launch terrorist attacks inside America on the lines of 9/11.
§ Despite of the killing and arrests of many notable Al Qaeda leaders, no meaningful progress has been made to determine the location or status of Osama Bin Laden.
§ Despite a full time presence of the US and NATO forces in Afghanistan with a single aim to crush Al Qaeda and the Taliban, a large area of the country is under effective control of the Taliban. They are reported to be conducting press conference, taking the government loyalists as hostages, growing poppy to finance their operations against the allied forces, and making strongholds in their areas of influence.
§ Despite unconditional cooperation rendered by Pakistan in the war, the blame against that ally for not doing enough, existence of safe heavens of terrorists and their frequent crossing over to Afghanistan continue. America has been given a free hand even within Pakistan to conduct anti terrorist operations in the shape of drone attacks and organizations like Black Water; but the situation seems to be out of control. It is amazing to think that a multinational force equipped with sophisticated weapons has failed to control the Taliban and to block their crossing of the border, but a single country like Pakistan is expected to do all this with miraculous success.
§ America has lost its good will in the world, particularly in the Muslim world. The US is being perceived as a neo-crusader who have unleashed a rein of terror and destruction against the Muslim countries. Although this perception is denied by America time and again, but seen in the back drop of unresolved issues like Palestine and Kashmir etc the perception seems to have some weight.
§ The generals and admirals of American and NATO forces have confessed many times that the war in Afghanistan is not producing the desired results.The admittance of this failure speaks volumes about the conduct of war in 21st century.The military strategists may revisit their doctrines. Gone are the days when the powerful countries would conquer the weaker ones and then stay there peacefully. The cost of war now drastically outweighs the gains achieved.
§ President Obama announced the end of operations in Iraq and the withdrawal of combat troops from there. An appearance of joy was visible from the faces of the American hierarchy as if an unpleasant job was over. But the country is far from being stable. A surge in suicide attacks in Iraq recently has been seen. It may take decades for the Iraqi people to come to terms with the post-war situation.
§ The US is not clear what to do and what not to do in Afghanistan now. The puppet government of Mr. Karzai is corrupt, incompetent and ineffective. The writ of the government can hardly be seen outside Kabul. As and the allied force leave Afghanistan, with or without settlement with the Taliban, the Taliban are sure to make a come back in the power. What will be the political and strategic map of post-war Afghanistan is anybody’s guess. However given the track record of the decision making by the sole super power, only an abrupt and erratic decision is expected without any forethought and forward planning.
On the cross road of history
So this is the cross road where we are standing today. The decision to attack Iraq and Afghanistan was the biggest mistake of this century. Taliban were never the enemies of America, rather they were converted to as such. They had a strong and effective government and were able to enforce peace in the country. If they did not agree to hand over Osama Bin Laden at the first instant, they could have been persuaded by their friends like Pakistan and Saudi Arabia over a period of time. By executing development projects the West could have brought the Taliban in the main stream of world community. Once that happened, other issues would have become much easier to settle. It was probable that after getting in to the main stream, the Taliban would have refined their internal policies to make them more civilized and acceptable.
Similarly attacking Iraq has disturbed the basic power structure in the Middle East. Saddam Hossain had a tight grip over the affairs of the country. He had virtually surrendered to the will of international community during the last days of his authority. It was much easier for the UN to get the desired policies implemented in Iraq through him. Apart from hundreds of thousands of Iraqis being killed and destroyed, this war has proved to be extremely costly for America in terms of money and resources.
Who are the beneficiaries of this war?
The analysis of the situation shows that, as a result of the American attack on Iraq, the country that has benefited the most is Iran. The Shiite population in Iraq, which had been politically suppressed by Saddam Hossain despite being majority, has now come up as an effective power broker. Obviously they have an inclination towards Shiite Iran. A strong government of Saddam Hossain duly supported by the West was a counter balancing force against Iran. It can be seen very clearly that after the start of this war, Iran is emerging as regional power. Iran has recently made tremendous progress in the fields of science, space and nuclear technology and the weaponry. The refueling of its first nuclear power plant with locally enriched uranium has started. Apart from many achievements in the manufacturing of missiles and other weapons, Iran has announced to send its first astronauts in space within fourteen years. There is no going back from this stage. Iran will soon be a potent force in the region to reckon with.
As the attack on Iraq has benefited Iran, in a similar manner attack on Afghanistan has benefited Pakistan the most. The post-war scenario in Afghanistan shows emergence of a strong and formidable Pakistan. After the exit of foreign troops, the Taliban or pro-Taliban government in Afghanistan will be a great support for Pakistan. The terrorist groups like Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan and their auxiliary groups will cease to exist in Pakistan. Hence Pakistan will get rid of the curse of terrorism and a new era of development and foreign investment will begin. Already a nuclear power, Pakistan will be another potent force in the region that nobody will be able to ignore.
Given the emerging scenario, the best option for America in Afghanistan will be to immediately negotiate their withdrawal plan with the Taliban. A broad-based national government in Kabul will be acceptable to the people of Afghanistan and will pave the way for a respectable American withdrawal. In the regional context, three countries; China, Pakistan and Iran will be the most important players. The responsibility of regional security and peace should be entrusted to this troika, for the best results.
Let Obama and Osama talk out their differences
And last but not the least, I go another step forward. For the sake of global peace the possibility of one-on-one dialogue between the US and Osama Bin Laden or his aide may also be considered. We should not be ashamed of this initiative because this is war and most of the wars in history have culminated at the dialogue table. Moreover, the Al Qaeda people are not aliens to the US because they were actually trained, financed and patronized by the US. If now they have become disgruntled and frustrated after being abandoned by the US, there is no reason why they could not be convinced again. Their grievances can be listened to and reasonable demands can be met. For long term demands the process of dialogue may continue. Some one may come up with the logic that a dialogue with Al Qaeda is ruled out as they very cruel people who have killed so many of the innocents. In my opinion history is full of such atrocities by the cruel people that if the share of Al Qaeda’s is compared with them, it will be infinitesimal. While rising above our ego, we may do well to take every possible step, how unpleasant it may look to us, for the sake of global peace, as no price is more than the worth of peace.
